Transformations  in
Business & Economics

POST-EVALUATION OF ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM APPLICATION BASED ON VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL
Yabo Lv, Yan He, Xin Yang

ABSTRACT: In recent years, the construction of intelligent transportation system has achieved rapid development. Some large and medium-sized cities in China have invested a lot of material resources and financial resources. However, the effect of an intelligent transportation system on the social and economic development of the city after its operation cannot be well explained at present. Therefore, it is very important and necessary to evaluate the economic benefits generated by the application of intelligent transportation system. However, as a transportation infrastructure construction industry, the economic benefits of intelligent transportation system application have a certain lag. To ensure the accuracy of evaluation research, taking the construction of an intelligent transportation system in Guangzhou City from 2004 to 2019 as an example, using qualitative and quantitative analysis, vector autoregression model, post-evaluation time point of economic benefits of intelligent transportation system application was evaluated. Results show that the influence of traffic information investment on the road network average speed in Guangzhou is relatively significant in the second year and stable at about 93% in the fourth year. The effect of investment in traffic informatisation on the average driving speed of the road network stabilises in the third year after the system is put into use. Post-evaluation time of the economic benefit evaluation of the intelligent transportation system application in Guangzhou is 3 years later, and the economic benefits generated by the evaluation can best reflect real economic benefits. The conclusion explains the reason for delayed economic benefits of intelligent transportation system application to a certain extent, provides ideas and reference methods for research on the post-evaluation time point of similar projects, and also puts forward an important role and future research focus on the post-evaluation time point of the intelligent transportation system.

KEYWORDS:  intelligent transportation system; economic benefit evaluation; post-evaluation time point; vector autoregressive model; lagging

JEL classification:  O22, O18, N70, C12