Transformations in
Business & Economics
- © Vilnius University, 2002-2012
- © Brno University of Technology, 2002-2012
- © University of Latvia, 2002-2012
Article
Some Empirical Evidence about the Effects of Macroeconomic Variables on the Exchange Rate in Romania
Kamer-Ainur Aivaz, Elena Condrea
ABSTRACT. The real exchange rate is one of the most important economic indicators, and its modification influences not only the consumers, but also the producers. From the international economy, only few issues are more controversial than the selection of a currency regime. In this context, the present paper aims to examine the interdependence of the exchange rate and various macroeconomic indicators. Changes in the external trade balance, monetary mass, interest rate and gross international reserves affects exchange rate fluctuation. The findings of the research suggest that the effects of monetary mass and gross international reserve over exchange rate are high and the evolution of the RON exchange rate is highly autoregressive, the previous level having a big influence on the level of the current course.
KEYWORDS: exchange rate, external trade balance, monetary mass, interest rate, grosses international reserves.
JEL classification: C50, E40, E50, F31.