Transformations  in
Business & Economics

Sustainability Assessment of Policy Scenarios
Dalia Streimikiene, Asta Mikalauskiene, Neringa Barakauskaite-Jakubauskiene

ABSTRACT. During EU Framework 7 project PLANETS 10 policy scenarios were developed by applying 6 models covering different modelling philosophies and ranging from Top-down to Bottom-up models. These policy scenarios were developed by combining 2 alternatives climate targets and 5 different modes of achieving the different climate change mitigation targets. Analysis of scenarios results provides a lot of information however it is difficult to judge about these scenarios and to develop policy recommendations as some scenarios show better results according contradicting criteria such as costs and GHG emission reduction therefore the sustainability assessment approach was proposed seeking to rank policy scenarios. Criteria for sustainability assessment of policy scenarios were developed based on EU sustainable energy policy targets: increase use of renewable, increase of energy use efficiency and GHG emissions reduction. These main EU energy policy targets are called 20/20/20. The European Union’s ‘20/20/20’ targets for 2020 are the following: reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% comparing with 1990 level (to become a 30% reduction if other major global economies join); increase the share of renewable in the final energy consumption to 20% and to achieve 20% improvement in energy efficiency compared to the level in 2020 if existing trends were to continue. Therefore EU energy policy scenarios were ranked based on these criteria and scenario costs. The results of multi-criteria analysis performed in the paper allow indentifying the best EU energy policy scenarios in terms of energy sustainability.

KEYWORDS: sustainability, policy scenarios, assessment of policy scenarios, the European Union.

JEL classification: Q56, R11.